The Smart Money?

The Washington Post has a cool interactive map showing campaign television ad spending by the two presidential campaigns and the leading Super PACs. One thing the map shows is that Americans for Prosperity is virtually alone in making ad buys in Minnesota.

Minnesota is generally considered to be safe for President Obama -- FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 94% chance of winning in November -- and the state's other high-profile election this year looks to be a safe one for Senator Amy Klobuchar. So what's happening here?

It isn't simply that AFP is spreading its money indiscriminately across the country. The Minnesota spending is part of a $25 million campaign targeting 11 states, including the most competitive states of the presidential campaign. It could be that AFP has a feeling about Minnesota and is willing to place a bet that the Romney campaign and other groups are not yet willing to. If nothing else, the spending illustrates the potential of outside group spending to reshape a campaign's terrain.